Actual result
R+2.6
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | D+8.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2014-10-21 | 442 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | 2014-10-05 | 400 | D+8.0 | 11 |
| We Ask America | 2014-09-30 | 919 | D+2.0 | 5 |