Actual result
R+20.0
Final polls said
R+14.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+19.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+16.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners | R+9.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-17 | 400 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2014-09-16 | 400 | R+9.0 | 11 |