Actual result
D+29.8
Final polls said
D+35.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+31.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+34.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+25.3 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+38.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+43.7 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2014-11-01 | 419 | D+25.3 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-18 | 348 | D+38.0 | 8 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-10-18 | 207 | D+43.7 | 14 |
| Digital Research | 2014-09-27 | 311 | D+34.0 | 4 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-09-26 | 200 | D+42.0 | 12 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-09-22 | 262 | D+53.0 | 23 |