Actual result
R+5.2
Final polls said
D+1.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | R+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+1.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+0.9 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+1.2 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+8.0 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2014-11-01 | 397 | R+0.9 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-18 | 291 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-10-18 | 193 | D+1.2 | 6 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2014-10-15 | 400 | D+8.0 | 13 |
| Digital Research | 2014-09-27 | 295 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-09-26 | 200 | D+3.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-09-22 | 220 | R+10.0 | 5 |