Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odney | R+15.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.3 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | WPA Intelligence | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odney | 2014-10-22 | 400 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| DFM Research | 2014-10-15 | 430 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2014-09-29 | 400 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2014-09-21 | 400 | D+2.0 | 19 |
| Odney | 2014-09-20 | 400 | R+10.0 | 7 |