Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
R+2.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | New England College Polling Center | R+9.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+17.0 | 20.6 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-31 | 405 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-31 | 778 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-24 | 261 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-24 | 556 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-16 | 461 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-12 | 160 | D+17.0 | 21 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-09 | 536 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-03 | 626 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-02 | 258 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-26 | 629 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-19 | 715 | EVEN | 4 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-10 | 607 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2014-09-05 | 400 | D+2.0 | 6 |