VotePredictor
past elections

New Hampshire House

Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Marilinda Garcia (R)

Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorD+9.60.4
2New England College Polling CenterD+11.01.0
3University of New Hampshire Survey CenterD+7.03.0
4Normington, Petts & AssociatesD+6.04.0
5YouGovR+5.015.0

Polls (13)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2014-10-31352D+7.03
New England College Polling Center2014-10-31748D+11.01
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2014-10-24294D+23.013
New England College Polling Center2014-10-24576D+7.03
New England College Polling Center2014-10-16460D+6.04
YouGov2014-10-12162R+5.015
New England College Polling Center2014-10-09545D+3.07
New England College Polling Center2014-10-03660D+12.02
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2014-10-02275R+4.014
New England College Polling Center2014-09-26702D+11.01
New England College Polling Center2014-09-19779D+11.01
New England College Polling Center2014-09-10627D+13.03
Normington, Petts & Associates2014-09-05400D+6.04