Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | New England College Polling Center | D+11.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+6.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-31 | 352 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-31 | 748 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-24 | 294 | D+23.0 | 13 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-24 | 576 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-16 | 460 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-12 | 162 | R+5.0 | 15 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-09 | 545 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-03 | 660 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-02 | 275 | R+4.0 | 14 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-26 | 702 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-19 | 779 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-10 | 627 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2014-09-05 | 400 | D+6.0 | 4 |