Actual result
R+12.1
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.8 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-28 | 427 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2014-10-14 | 400 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-12 | 432 | R+5.0 | 7 |