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Toss-up · 2014 House
New Jersey House
In the 2014 New Jersey House race, Scott Garrett (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.1
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2014-10-281
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2014-10-147
Monmouth University Polling Institute2014-10-127
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 New Jersey House race?
Scott Garrett (R) won, by about 12.1 points (R+12.1).
When was the 2014 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.