Actual result
R+4.9
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Harper Polling | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-28 | 670 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-24 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| Harper Polling | 2014-09-21 | 568 | EVEN | 5 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-09 | 592 | D+10.0 | 15 |