Actual result
R+6.2
Final polls said
R+19.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | EVEN | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Siena College | R+19.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-27 | 713 | R+19.0 | 13 |
| GBAO | 2014-09-16 | 400 | EVEN | 6 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-11 | 585 | R+4.0 | 2 |