Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+3.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 5.2 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-26 | 682 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-24 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-22 | 401 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-12 | 400 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-24 | 601 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-14 | 590 | D+8.0 | 3 |