Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | R+14.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | R+18.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | 2014-10-27 | 560 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2014-10-21 | 670 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Harper Polling | 2014-09-27 | 674 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-06 | 591 | R+13.0 | 2 |