Actual result
R+33.1
Final polls said
R+21.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+27.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.9 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+21.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+18.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+16.0 | 17.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-26 | 429 | R+27.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-23 | 611 | R+16.0 | 17 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-10-22 | 800 | R+21.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-03 | 616 | R+18.0 | 15 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2014-09-23 | 615 | R+18.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-05 | 510 | R+13.0 | 20 |