Actual result
R+16.1
Final polls said
R+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+16.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.6 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+12.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victoria Research & Consulting | R+2.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2014-10-17 | 404 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2014-09-26 | 400 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-09-24 | 403 | R+12.0 | 4 |