Actual result
R+2.1
Final polls said
D+0.5
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harstad Strategic Research | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hickman Analytics | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Dittman Research | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Big Village | R+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Hays Research Group | D+4.2 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Alaska Survey Research | D+7.9 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | Hellenthal & Associates | D+9.4 | 11.5 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1052 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 887 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Moore Information Group | 2014-10-27 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2014-10-25 | 330 | D+7.9 | 10 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2014-10-20 | 700 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 561 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2014-10-18 | 403 | D+9.4 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-10 | 700 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 706 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-03 | 704 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2014-09-29 | 400 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 593 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-23 | 750 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 880 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2014-09-18 | 400 | R+4.5 | 2 |
| Dittman Research | 2014-09-16 | 800 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Hays Research Group | 2014-09-13 | 500 | D+4.2 | 6 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2014-09-09 | 709 | D+5.0 | 7 |