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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Alaska Senate
In the 2014 Alaska Senate race, Dan Sullivan (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.1
Final polls said
D+0.5
7 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | EVEN | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Hickman Analytics | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Dittman Research | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | R+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Hays Research Group | D+4.2 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Alaska Survey Research | D+7.9 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 12 | Hellenthal & Associates | D+9.4 | 11.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-011
Rasmussen Reports2014-10-293
Moore Information Group2014-10-272
Alaska Survey Research2014-10-2510
Harstad Strategic Research2014-10-202
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Alaska Senate race?
Dan Sullivan (R) won, by about 2.1 points (R+2.1).
When was the 2014 Alaska Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.