Actual result
D+13.6
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+15.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+22.2 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | D+25.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 461 | D+18.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 471 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | 2014-09-16 | 769 | D+25.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-11 | 750 | D+15.0 | 1 |