Actual result
R+30.7
Final polls said
R+31.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+30.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+30.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+31.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+18.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 575 | R+31.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-11 | 522 | R+18.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 594 | R+37.0 | 6 |