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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Kentucky Senate
In the 2014 Kentucky Senate race, Mitch McConnell (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+15.5
Final polls said
R+6.5
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+9.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+9.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Magellan Strategies | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+4.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Ipsos | R+4.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+3.7 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 17.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
20 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-10-317
Marist College2014-10-296
SurveyUSA2014-10-2710
Public Opinion Strategies2014-10-268
YouGov2014-10-209
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Kentucky Senate race?
Mitch McConnell (R) won, by about 15.5 points (R+15.5).
When was the 2014 Kentucky Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.