Actual result
R+15.5
Final polls said
R+6.5
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+9.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+9.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Magellan Strategies | R+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | R+6.9 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+4.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Ipsos | R+4.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+3.7 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 17.5 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 1503 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-29 | 556 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-27 | 597 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-26 | 600 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1502 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2014-10-18 | 815 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-17 | 655 | R+1.0 | 14 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-15 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | 2014-10-12 | 559 | R+3.7 | 12 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-11 | 1020 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 706 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-01 | 632 | D+2.0 | 17 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1689 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Mellman Group | 2014-09-23 | 1800 | D+2.0 | 17 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-15 | 839 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2014-09-13 | 2282 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-10 | 679 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2014-09-10 | 944 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-09-06 | 742 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2014-09-06 | 800 | D+1.0 | 16 |