Actual result
R+11.9
Final polls said
R+5.5
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | R+11.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | JMC Analytics | R+15.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+15.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+8.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+16.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Magellan Strategies | R+16.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | R+7.4 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Multi-Quest International | R+3.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | R+21.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | WPA Intelligence | R+24.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-12-03 | 1000 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2014-11-24 | 500 | R+24.0 | 12 |
| JMC Analytics | 2014-11-20 | 754 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-11-18 | 1000 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-11-16 | 761 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-11-13 | 643 | R+21.0 | 9 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-11-12 | 1917 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-29 | 630 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-25 | 500 | R+7.4 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-22 | 988 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2014-10-17 | 292 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Multi-Quest International | 2014-10-16 | 605 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-13 | 546 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-13 | 965 | R+9.0 | 3 |