VotePredictor
past elections

Massachusetts Senate

Edward J. Markey (D) vs Brian J. Herr (R)

Actual result
D+23.9
Final polls said
D+18.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.9
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1MassINC Polling GroupD+25.01.1
2VotePredictorD+21.91.9
3SocialSphereD+26.02.1
4Western New England University Polling InstituteD+20.03.9
5Rasmussen ReportsD+18.05.9
6YouGovD+16.07.9
7Suffolk UniversityD+15.08.9
8Public Policy PollingD+14.09.9

Polls (13)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-10-31887D+14.010
Suffolk University2014-10-28500D+15.09
Western New England University Polling Institute2014-10-25430D+20.04
YouGov2014-10-24591D+16.08
MassINC Polling Group2014-10-24494D+25.01
YouGov2014-10-202218D+22.02
MassINC Polling Group2014-10-03504D+26.02
Suffolk University2014-09-27500D+23.40
YouGov2014-09-262389D+23.01
Western New England University Polling Institute2014-09-24416D+22.02
MassINC Polling Group2014-09-18502D+28.04
Rasmussen Reports2014-09-16750D+18.06
SocialSphere2014-09-15407D+26.02