Actual result
R+37.0
Final polls said
R+29.1
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+35.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+39.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+32.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+28.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+20.1 | 16.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2014-11-01 | 906 | R+20.1 | 17 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-26 | 488 | R+32.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1177 | R+19.0 | 18 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-18 | 667 | R+35.0 | 2 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-10-18 | 400 | R+39.6 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-09 | 540 | R+25.0 | 12 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-09-26 | 400 | R+43.3 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1531 | R+24.0 | 13 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-09-22 | 482 | R+30.0 | 7 |