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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2014 Montana Senate race, Steve Daines (R) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
R+17.7
Final polls said
R+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+18.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Billings | R+16.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+14.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2014-10-234
YouGov2014-10-200
Montana State University Billings2014-10-082
Gravis Marketing2014-09-295
YouGov2014-09-263
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Montana Senate race?
Steve Daines (R) won, by about 17.7 points (R+17.7).
When was the 2014 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.