Actual result
R+17.7
Final polls said
R+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+17.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+18.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+16.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | R+14.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-23 | 604 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 497 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2014-10-08 | 410 | R+16.1 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 535 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 549 | R+21.0 | 3 |