Actual result
R+39.2
Final polls said
R+34.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+36.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+36.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+36.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SoonerPoll.com | R+34.9 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | 2014-10-27 | 949 | R+34.9 | 5 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2014-10-27 | 949 | R+31.3 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 995 | R+36.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 995 | R+34.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1244 | R+42.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1244 | R+41.0 | 2 |