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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Oregon Senate
In the 2014 Oregon Senate race, Jeff Merkley (D) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
D+18.9
Final polls said
D+18.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elway Research | D+19.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | DHM Research | D+21.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+8.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Elway Research2014-10-260
SurveyUSA2014-10-252
YouGov2014-10-207
SurveyUSA2014-10-182
DHM Research2014-10-092
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Oregon Senate race?
Jeff Merkley (D) won, by about 18.9 points (D+18.9).
When was the 2014 Oregon Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.