Actual result
D+18.9
Final polls said
D+18.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elway Research | D+19.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+20.9 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | DHM Research | D+21.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+8.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | 2014-10-26 | 400 | D+19.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-25 | 552 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1421 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-18 | 561 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| DHM Research | 2014-10-09 | 500 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1508 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-23 | 568 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2014-09-10 | 600 | D+8.0 | 11 |