Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Montana State University Billings | D+12.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 449 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 405 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-11 | 1003 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2016-10-07 | 590 | D+12.0 | 8 |