Actual result
R+2.3
Final polls said
D+2.3
14 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Praecones Analytica | R+3.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | MassINC Polling Group | R+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+2.9 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+11.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | SurveyMonkey | D+13.0 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-05 | 671 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 696 | D+13.0 | 15 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-01 | 455 | D+8.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-11-01 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 781 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-31 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-30 | 695 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-28 | 503 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 659 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Praecones Analytica | 2016-10-27 | 408 | R+3.4 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 401 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-22 | 768 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-19 | 772 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-14 | 673 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 569 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-11 | 501 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-09 | 517 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-04 | 500 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2016-10-01 | 500 | EVEN | 2 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-09-28 | 502 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2016-09-22 | 522 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-19 | 400 | R+6.0 | 4 |