Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
R+2.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tulchin Research | D+4.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+6.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+9.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-05 | 400 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Tulchin Research | 2016-09-29 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-09-24 | 504 | R+2.0 | 1 |