Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+3.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.5 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | St. Pete Polls | D+5.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data Targeting | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+18.0 | 14.2 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2016-11-06 | 944 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2016-11-01 | 1066 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2016-10-23 | 1087 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Data Targeting | 2016-10-11 | 301 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2016-10-10 | 611 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2016-10-10 | 1280 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2016-10-03 | 400 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2016-09-18 | 739 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Data Targeting | 2016-09-09 | 300 | EVEN | 4 |