Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+5.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+6.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+11.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | R+2.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-11-02 | 415 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2016-10-30 | 400 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| GBAO | 2016-10-16 | 400 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-10-10 | 400 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2016-09-30 | 400 | R+16.0 | 8 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2016-09-30 | 439 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-21 | 368 | R+7.0 | 1 |