Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+2.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+10.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | North Star Opinion Research | R+7.0 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-12 | 738 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2016-10-10 | 400 | R+7.0 | 12 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-28 | 399 | D+5.0 | 0 |