Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+1.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+2.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-22 | 314 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-10 | 932 | D+4.0 | 14 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-10-02 | 400 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-21 | 400 | EVEN | 10 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-09-17 | 231 | R+10.0 | 0 |