Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+5.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2016-10-28 | 500 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-15 | 600 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2016-10-09 | 400 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2016-10-05 | 500 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| GBAO | 2016-09-21 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |