Actual result
R+15.6
Final polls said
R+14.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+15.6 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+13.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+19.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Moore Information Group | R+11.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+3.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-11 | 1003 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2016-10-07 | 590 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-10-02 | 400 | R+11.0 | 5 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2016-09-24 | 403 | R+3.0 | 13 |