Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singularis Group | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | North Star Opinion Research | R+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 11.2 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singularis Group | 2016-10-26 | 1482 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2016-10-23 | 400 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-09-16 | 402 | D+10.0 | 11 |