Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+6.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | North Star Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+9.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+10.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-05 | 323 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-01 | 219 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-28 | 239 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-19 | 380 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-14 | 344 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-20 | 400 | D+10.0 | 9 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2016-09-16 | 427 | R+3.0 | 4 |