Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+17.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+11.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+17.9 | 13.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+21.0 | 16.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-05 | 322 | D+21.0 | 17 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-01 | 221 | D+23.0 | 19 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-28 | 237 | D+15.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-19 | 382 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-14 | 334 | D+30.0 | 26 |