VotePredictor
past elections

New Jersey House

Peter Jacob (D) vs Leonard Lance (R)

Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.9
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+2.98.1
2Public Policy PollingEVEN11.0

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Public Policy Polling2016-10-21982EVEN11