Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+5.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-15 | 403 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Tarrance Group | 2016-10-12 | 400 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Tarrance Group | 2016-09-28 | 400 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-09-27 | 458 | D+3.0 | 2 |