Actual result
R+20.5
Final polls said
R+23.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benchmark Research | R+23.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+25.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark Research | 2016-09-27 | 1200 | R+23.0 | 3 |