Actual result
R+12.4
Final polls said
R+10.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+13.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | R+10.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+15.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+8.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Y2 Analytics | R+20.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-10-20 | 478 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-10-17 | 404 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2016-10-12 | 500 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2016-09-23 | 400 | R+20.0 | 8 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-09-16 | 409 | R+18.0 | 6 |