Actual result
R+5.8
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Expedition Strategies | D+4.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies | 2016-10-11 | 400 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Expedition Strategies | 2016-09-20 | 600 | R+10.0 | 4 |