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Toss-up · 2016 President
Hawaii President
In the 2016 Hawaii President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 32 points.
Actual result
D+32.2
Final polls said
D+21.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+24.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+22.4 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+18.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
Ipsos2016-10-3014
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2813
YouGov2016-10-2010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Hawaii President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 32.2 points (D+32.2).
When was the 2016 Hawaii President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.