← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 President
Hawaii President
In the 2016 Hawaii President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 32 points.
Actual result
D+32.2
Final polls said
D+21.0
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+24.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+22.4 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+18.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-048
Ipsos2016-10-3014
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2813
YouGov2016-10-2010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Hawaii President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 32.2 points (D+32.2).
When was the 2016 Hawaii President election held?
It was held in November 2016.