Actual result
D+32.2
Final polls said
D+21.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+24.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+22.4 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+22.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+18.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 426 | D+24.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 102 | D+18.6 | 14 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 467 | D+19.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 289 | D+22.4 | 10 |