Actual result
D+14.8
Final polls said
D+12.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+12.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+11.5 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+20.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+6.3 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 375 | D+6.3 | 9 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-25 | 429 | D+11.5 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-22 | 329 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-14 | 469 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-08 | 468 | D+16.4 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-09-17 | 206 | D+22.0 | 7 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-09-16 | 440 | D+10.7 | 4 |