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Toss-up · 2016 President
M2 President
In the 2016 M2 President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
D+0.3
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+3.4 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | EVEN | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.4 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+3.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+4.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2016-10-2912
Maine People's Resource Center2016-10-257
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2016-10-2213
Maine People's Resource Center2016-10-1411
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-10-1010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 M2 President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 10.3 points (R+10.3).
When was the 2016 M2 President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.