Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
D+0.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+3.4 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.2 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | EVEN | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+1.4 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+3.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+4.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 375 | D+1.4 | 12 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-25 | 382 | R+3.4 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-22 | 341 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-14 | 420 | D+1.2 | 11 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-10 | 932 | EVEN | 10 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-08 | 424 | R+1.6 | 9 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-10-02 | 400 | D+4.0 | 14 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-21 | 400 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-09-17 | 207 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-09-16 | 396 | R+11.1 | 1 |