Toss-up · 2016 President

Maine President

In the 2016 Maine President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

D+3.0

Final polls said

D+7.4

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+4.0	1.0	✓
2	YouGov	D+4.7	1.7	✓
3	Maine People's Resource Center	D+5.0	2.0	✓
4	Ipsos	D+7.3	4.3	✓
5	SurveyMonkey	D+8.0	5.0	✓
6	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+11.0	8.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
3	New York Times	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 84%	0.026	✓