Actual result
D+3.0
Final polls said
D+7.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+4.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+7.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+7.3 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+11.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 779 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 245 | D+7.3 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 750 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 432 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-25 | 812 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-22 | 670 | D+11.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 437 | D+4.7 | 2 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-14 | 890 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 202 | D+9.1 | 6 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-10-08 | 892 | D+7.9 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 276 | D+11.4 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-09-17 | 513 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2016-09-16 | 835 | D+0.3 | 3 |