Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
D+1.0
24 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+1.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | D+1.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Leger | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | JMC Analytics | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Marist College | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Clarity Campaign Labs | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | GQR | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Remington Research Group | R+1.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Suffolk University | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | Lucid | D+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Bendixen & Amandi International | D+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 20 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 21 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.6 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 23 | Big Village | R+6.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 54% | 0.209 | ✓ |
Polls (42)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 373 | EVEN | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1158 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1207 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | EVEN | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 600 | D+1.2 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-03 | 1100 | R+4.6 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 1793 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 688 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | EVEN | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 892 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-10-30 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 787 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 790 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1010 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 339 | D+3.2 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 550 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 875 | EVEN | 2 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 2016-10-22 | 800 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-22 | 707 | EVEN | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1332 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 826 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 656 | D+1.6 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-16 | 413 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-13 | 996 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 884 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 698 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-10-12 | 600 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-11 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-10 | 1010 | EVEN | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-10 | 986 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 700 | EVEN | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 347 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-09-29 | 700 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 2016-09-28 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-09-28 | 500 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 704 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-09-17 | 800 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | EVEN | 2 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 398 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 294 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-12 | 406 | R+2.0 | 4 |