Toss-up · 2016 President

Nevada President

In the 2016 Nevada President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+2.4

Final polls said

D+1.0

24 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Gravis Marketing	D+2.0	0.4	✓
2	SurveyMonkey	D+2.0	0.4	✓
3	Public Policy Polling	D+3.0	0.6	✓
4	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+3.0	0.6	✓
5	YouGov	D+1.6	0.8	✓
6	Ipsos	D+3.2	0.8	✓
7	Emerson College	D+1.2	1.2	✓
8	Leger	EVEN	2.4	✗
9	Rasmussen Reports	EVEN	2.4	✗
10	JMC Analytics	EVEN	2.4	✗
11	Marist College	EVEN	2.4	✗
12	Clarity Campaign Labs	EVEN	2.4	✗
13	GQR	EVEN	2.4	✗
14	Remington Research Group	R+1.0	3.4	✗
15	Public Opinion Strategies	D+6.0	3.6	✓
16	Suffolk University	D+6.0	3.6	✓
17	Lucid	D+7.0	4.6	✓
18	Bendixen & Amandi International	D+7.0	4.6	✓
19	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+7.0	4.6	✓
20	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+3.0	5.4	✗
21	Trafalgar Group	R+4.6	7.0	✗
22	Big Village	R+6.0	8.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	New York Times	Dem 68%	0.102	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 59%	0.168	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 53%	0.220	✓