Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Georgia Senate

In the 2016 Georgia Senate race, Johnny Isakson (R) won by about 14 points.

Actual result

R+13.8

Final polls said

R+9.9

13 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Landmark Communications	R+13.6	0.2	✓
2	Quinnipiac University	R+14.0	0.3	✓
3	JMC Analytics	R+13.0	0.8	✓
4	Abt Associates	R+15.0	1.3	✓
5	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+16.0	2.3	✓
6	Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications	R+11.0	2.8	✓
7	Marist College	R+11.0	2.8	✓
8	InsiderAdvantage	R+10.8	2.9	✓
9	Lucid	R+10.0	3.8	✓
10	Emerson College	R+8.0	5.8	✓
11	20/20 Insight	R+7.0	6.8	✓
12	YouGov	R+7.0	6.8	✓
13	SurveyMonkey	R+6.0	7.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓