Actual result
R+13.8
Final polls said
R+9.9
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landmark Communications | R+13.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+14.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | JMC Analytics | R+13.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Abt Associates | R+15.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+16.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | R+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | R+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | InsiderAdvantage | R+10.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lucid | R+10.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | 20/20 Insight | R+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | SurveyMonkey | R+6.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 2016-11-06 | 1200 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| 20/20 Insight | 2016-11-04 | 541 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2419 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 995 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 2016-11-03 | 1000 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-11-02 | 538 | R+10.8 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-31 | 707 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 650 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2665 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 707 | R+14.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-20 | 570 | R+9.4 | 4 |
| Abt Associates | 2016-10-19 | 839 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 807 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 886 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Landmark Communications | 2016-10-11 | 1400 | R+13.6 | 0 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-09-21 | 600 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 638 | R+21.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-17 | 401 | R+16.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-09-14 | 568 | R+12.9 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+16.0 | 2 |