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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Idaho Senate
In the 2016 Idaho Senate race, Mike Crapo (R) won by about 38 points.
Actual result
R+38.4
Final polls said
R+26.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+33.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 19.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0419
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2811
Emerson College2016-10-225
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Idaho Senate race?
Mike Crapo (R) won, by about 38.4 points (R+38.4).
When was the 2016 Idaho Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.