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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Idaho Senate
In the 2016 Idaho Senate race, Mike Crapo (R) won by about 38 points.
Actual result
R+38.4
Final polls said
R+26.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+33.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 19.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0419
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2811
Emerson College2016-10-225
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Idaho Senate race?
Mike Crapo (R) won, by about 38.4 points (R+38.4).
When was the 2016 Idaho Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.