Actual result
R+3.1
Final polls said
R+10.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+9.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | R+10.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+13.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Victory Enterprises | R+17.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+18.3 | 15.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2017-06-16 | 1001 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2017-05-24 | 401 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-05-21 | 746 | R+13.0 | 10 |
| Victory Enterprises | 2017-05-17 | 629 | R+17.0 | 14 |