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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Alaska Governor
In the 2018 Alaska Governor race, Mike Dunleavy (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+2.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+0.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+20.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.097 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-287
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-212
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-1310
Public Policy Polling2018-10-1113
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-0317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Alaska Governor race?
Mike Dunleavy (R) won, by about 7.0 points (R+7.0).
When was the 2018 Alaska Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.