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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Alaska Governor
In the 2018 Alaska Governor race, Mike Dunleavy (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+2.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+0.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+20.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.097 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-287
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-212
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-1310
Public Policy Polling2018-10-1113
Alaska Survey Research2018-10-0317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Alaska Governor race?
Mike Dunleavy (R) won, by about 7.0 points (R+7.0).
When was the 2018 Alaska Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.