Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+2.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+0.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+15.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+20.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-28 | 500 | R+0.2 | 7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-21 | 500 | R+4.6 | 2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-13 | 500 | R+17.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-11 | 645 | R+20.0 | 13 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-10-03 | 500 | R+23.9 | 17 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2018-09-23 | 500 | R+15.4 | 8 |